Luminar logo3/31/2023 Analysts on average are modeling 2023 revenue of $116.9 million, according to FactSet, while expecting 2022 sales of $42.1 million, with the final quarter still in question until Luminar reports on Feb. Wall Street has high hopes for his efforts, projecting that sales will nearly triple in 2023. Russell said that Luminar exceeded its goal of 60% growth for new production vehicle models in 2022, and he put forward a goal at CES of having its lidar in more than a million cars by the second half of this decade. In addition, a Volvo EX90 electric SUV at the company’s booth had the same type of module installed just above the windshield, and Russell mentioned a deal with Polestar Automotiveįor more: Self-Driving Technology Provider Luminar Just Hit a Big Milestone That had a Luminar lidar package in a roofline module the car is already being produced, sold and driven in China. At CES, he showed off a car from China’s largest manufacturer, SAIC Motor Corp. To build decent 3-D maps, though, Russell will have to ensure that Luminar lidar is on millions of consumer cars. Luminar has developed autonomy software called Sentinel and announced the acquisition of Civil Maps to start building three-dimensional maps with the data its sensors will receive once they are installed on consumer vehicles. But he is trying to develop an entire ecosystem around his company’s sensors and attempting to brand the company to consumers as well as car manufacturers. The sensors are largely seen as commodities - Russell described the general view of lidar as “white-box,” or generic, tech. In a CES press conference and in discussions with MarketWatch, Russell presented Luminar as more than just a lidar company like those others. Has kept its market cap above $500 million, while Cepton Inc. Luminar’s market capitalization fell below $1.5 billion for the first time Friday, but the company has retained its “unicorn” status as the now-larger Ouster sinks below a $200 million valuation. Luminar’s shares have followed a similar trajectory, falling 74.2% in the past year and closing at record lows every day this week as Russell attempted to make a splash at CES. And after Ouster Inc.Īnd rival Velodyne saw their stocks plummet 80% last year while suing each other, they decided to merge and try to compete together. Went bankrupt less than a year after going public in a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, the same path Luminar took to go public. Many investors made big bets on lidar playing a lucrative role in a more autonomous future in recent years, but those investments largely unraveled in 2022. While the sensors are largely seen as a necessary component for the robotaxis that have started to carry customers in certain cities around the world, manufacturers that design personal automobiles are largely choosing between adding lidar or radar to camera-only systems or going with cameras only for advanced driver-assistance features, and potentially for additional autonomous features in the future, as well.įrom 2017: Lidar really only has one rival in the race to be autonomous cars’ eyes The purpose of the test was clear: For his company to succeed and its stock to come out of a tailspin, Russell has to convince automotive manufacturers, most of whom had a presence at the tech show, that they need lidar on the cars they sell to consumers. It doesn’t really know how far away the object is or where it is - it’s just guessing.” “Whereas with cameras, it’s just guessing what’s going on ahead. With lidar, “you get an extreme level of confidence for what’s ahead because you know and you can measure exactly down to centimeter-level precision what’s there,” Russell said while conducting the demo with a MarketWatch reporter.
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